A note on arbitrage,approximate arbitrage and the fundamental theorem of asset pricing

We provide a critical analysis of the proof of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing given in the paper Arbitrage and approximate arbitrage: the fundamental theorem of asset pricing by B. Wong and C.C. Heyde [Stochastics 82 (2010), pp. 189–200] in the context of incomplete Itô-process models. We show that their approach can only work in the known case of a complete financial market model and give an explicit counter example.     

The Lévy Swap Market Model

Models driven by Lévy processes are attractive since they allow for better statistical fitting than classical diffusion models. The dynamics of the forward swap rate process is derived in a semimartingale setting and a Lévy swap market model is introduced. In order to guarantee positive rates, the swap rates are modelled as ordinary exponentials. The model starts with the most distant rate, which is driven by a non‐homogeneous Lévy process. Via backward induction the remaining swap rates are constructed such that they become martingales under the corresponding forward swap measures. Finally it is shown how swaptions can be priced using bilateral Laplace transforms.     

Mean‐Reverting Market Model: Speculative Opportunities and Non‐Arbitrage

The paper studies arbitrage opportunities and possible speculative opportunities for diffusion mean‐reverting market models. It is shown that the Novikov condition is satisfied for any time interval and for any set of parameters. It is non‐trivial because the appreciation rate has Gaussian distribution converging to a stationary limit. It follows that the mean‐reverting model is arbitrage‐free for any finite time interval. Further, it is shown that this model still allows some speculative opportunities: a gain for a wide enough set of expected utilities can be achieved for a strategy that does not require any hypothesis on market parameters and does not use estimation of these parameters.     

基于ARFIMA-HYGARCH-M-VaR模型的亚洲汇率市场均值和波动过程的双长期记忆性测度研究

作为金融传导机制的一个重要成分,汇率在金融危机的传播中发挥着重要作用.因此本文以亚洲汇率市场的汇率作为研究样本,通过引入skt分布来刻画残差的分布,构建了ARFIMA-HYGARCH-M-VaR模型来测度汇率风险值,并与skt分布下的GARCH及FIGARCH模型的VaR进行失败率回测检验与动态分位数测试.研究结果表明:在不同显著性水平下,skt分布下的各种模型基本都有较好的风险测度能力,且ARFIMA-HYGARCH-M模型的VaR风险测度更加精确与稳定.本研究为我国及亚洲其他国家汇率市场的风险测度与风险管理提供了一定的理论借鉴和方法基础.     

电子商务与传统商务发展趋势的博弈分析

在消费者对商品价格与供货时间的偏好假设下,建立一个厂商关于电子商务与传统商务交易方式选择的完全信息静态博弈模型,其纳什均衡表明了电子商务与传统商务潜在的发展趋势,特别是两者可能的市场剖分关系.确切而言,若市场满足既定假设,均衡条件下的电子商务交易方式表现为较长的供货时间及低于传统商务约40%的市场交易价格,将获得三分之一的市场份额.     

寡头垄断市场三度价格歧视动态博弈分析

对两寡头厂商2元市场用完全信息动态博弈的方法分析了实施三度价格歧视情形和统一定价情形的均衡产量,均衡价格和均衡总收益,并研究了这两种情形三个指标之间的关系.结果显示,在两个子市场的需求函数为线性需求的条件下,统一定价的市场均衡产量等于歧视定价的市场均衡产量;统一定价的均衡价格是歧视定价时两个子市场均衡价格的加权平均;统一定价的市场均衡总收益小于歧视定价的市场均衡总收益.     

碳市场EUA与CER 期货价格变动关系的实证研究

基于VAR模型,对碳市场中的EUA期货价格和CER期货价格的变动关系进行了实证研究．选取欧洲气候交易所（ECX）的EUA期货价格和CER期货价格作为研究对象,运用Johansen协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、向量误差修正模型、广义脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法形成递进式的计量分析框架．研究结果表明：第一,EUA期货价格与CER期货价格之间存在着相互影响关系;第二,CER期货价格对市场信息的反映比EUA期货价格更为敏感,反映速度更快;第三,两种价格之间,CER期货价格变动的影响起主导作用,更好地发挥了期货的定价功能,两市场间存在杠杆效应．     

股权激励对公司价值的影响因素研究——基于A股市场2008—2010年的实证研究

股权激励作为一种制度安排,作用在于促进股东和公司管理层形成利益共同体,激励管理层最大限度地为股东和公司创造价值.通过实证研究影响公司价值的相关因素,求证股权激励确实对公司价值有正面影响,同时为上市公司的实施股权激励计划提出若干建议.     

Theory of Economic Equilibrium

Abstract

New concepts of economics such as an average demand matrix of society, strategy of a firm and consumer behaviour, and others are introduced. We give sufficient conditions for technological mapping under which there exist both the Walras equlibrium state and optimal Walras equilibrium one. We obtain the set of equations which equilibrium price vector solves. The theory of interindustry economic equilibrium is developed. The model of economy with regular interests of consumers is proposed.